Like a hot shower after a cool, brisk walk around the farm. In just a few minutes, we’re going to cover current markets and what’s creating grain trading opportunities!
What’s happening in Grain Markets?
Wheat continues to be the main headline!
Hard Red Spring ratings are down 1%, which is within trade expectation; HOWEVER, there’s been little to no rain through some of the biggest wheat producing areas in North America, and if frost damage wasn’t a big enough concern, there’s now a 10-day heat wave in the forecast!
…Raising the price of wheat can only do so much to revive this market. Once your crop is shot, your crop is shot!
“Because, if your crop dies on the field, it doesn’t regenerate on the open market. EVER! Game over!” – Sonic the Hedgehog
The local domestic Feed Wheat market is seeing lots of demand, and spot, old crop bids are now $5.10+/bushel picked up Edmonton through Calgary! Spring thrashed pricing is varying from $4.00-4.50 picked-up depending on overall quality. New crop bids have been trailing behind so far, with offers triggering closer to $4.75-4.85/bushel picked-up.
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Canola futures have been as exciting to watch as the playoffs – after your team’s been eliminated… With estimates pushing 22 million seeded acres, markets have been testing support levels. The trade is currently waiting on the release of the highly anticipated USDA June Acreage report this Friday, as well as Thursday’s Stats Canada report.
USDA: If soybeans overtake corn in this year’s epic “battle of the acres”, any large increase will be on top of the record-large South American crop. This will force canola to continue it’s pre-harvest slide.
STATS CAN: Reports could go either way. If acres are reported at less than 22 million, we will see some added stability. But reports could also come out saying 22.5 million acres…
Either way! Our NEW CROP Canola strategy is a simple one: Sit on your hands, looking for opportunities on futures / basis.
For OLD CROP, regardless of the futures buyers are likely going to try and keep prices close to $12 dlvd. Let’s make sure we price accordingly. Around the Edmonton area, we’ve been trading canola at $11.60-11.65 picked-up for July movement.
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Barley has seen support from continued export and domestic feeder demand, with offers trading between $3.30-3.70 picked-up, Edmonton through Lethbridge. New crop bids have also been painting a brighter picture for next year and offers are currently trading at a premium to old crop.
If you need to move old crop for bin space, or might benefit from movement by early fall, this is a great opportunity to lock in prior to harvest pressure!
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Oat futures have been closely linked to how well wheat has been doing. Considering it’s not doing well at all, new crop bids should at least hold, if not recover. However, feed oats and spring thrashed oats are a different story at the moment… Lots of offers, which means decreasing prices. Fall thrashed feed oats bids are still ranging between $2.00-2.25/bu picked-up through the province, while spring thrashed oats have fallen to $1.50-1.60/bu picked-up Athabasca through Red Deer.
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Peas… Crops aren’t looking too great so far. Additionally, with the difficulties experienced this spring, seeded acres may be less than what’s been reported. For producers looking to forward price, lets hope the market takes notice of this sooner than later…
While we wait for Green Pea sales to reappear for the fall, we’re currently targeting $8.50+/bushel delivered for both Greens and Yellows. Great old crop bids still available for Yellows at $9.50-9.90/bu delivered, and yesterday we had some old crop Greens trade for just under $8/bu delivered.
Don’t have time to watch the markets or shop around? Well!! That’s what we’re here for!
Put us to work!
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