Never am I more thankful for spring and summer than after a nice, long cold snap in the prairies… And this year is no different! In fact, the last couple weeks have felt considerably worse than winters past. And that’s because it is!!!
In Edmonton, it’s been close to two weeks since the weather has dipped under -20. The last time this happened was back in January 1998!! 21 years ago!!!! As it turned out, the summer of 1998 was one of the hottest on records, so if we get rain at the right times this year, it could be a bountiful harvest! See how quickly you can turn a negative into a positive…?
History does tend to repeat itself. And that’s not because the world has run out of ideas! I believe it repeats itself because no one was really listening the first time. Or maybe they were listening but weren’t quite hearing. Just ask my wife, Michelle! This is easier than you think, and I do it all the time.
Many of you weren’t farming yet in ’98. But you still have plenty of history to dissect. What successes did your dad, uncle and grand-dad have over the last fifty years? Your neighbours? Your friends? … What failures did they have…?
Those who farm with understanding farm with wisdom. Nevertheless, even the wisest of farmers still fall victim to unforeseen attacks on their farm!
Nobody knows what the future holds, but I’ll always take an educated guess over throwing darts in the wind. As you work on seeding plans, we’d like to help you figure out which commodities you can count on paying next fall!
Give us a call or shoot us an email! We’re here to help!
Barley:The cold weather seems to never end, but at least it is good for something. The feed barley market was beginning to trend downward, but the cold supported the price and provided some short term strengthening. Despite the increased demand buyers have decent coverage for the time frame before spring breakup and are starting to buy for April and beyond.
Wheat: Similar to the barley market, the cold weather has been a support for feed wheat. Buyers are currently buying for March and into April. On a global front, Russia and the rest of the Black Sea region has slowed down its export programs. The currency valuation differential still makes it much more attractive than American wheat for many markets.
Oats:Good news on the oats market front as they are trending upwards! This is the case for both feed quality and milling oats. Stats Can reported that oat stocks are down approximately 20% from last year and buyers are quite hungry for product. Especially in the milling market, there is a bullish outlook as we go forward into the spring as supplies tighten. For feed oats, if they are heavy and dry, now before spring breakup is an excellent pricing opportunity and $3.00+ FOB farm is possible in many areas of the prairies.
Canola: Canola is currently managing to tread water, trending relatively sideways. There is still uncertainty in the market especially with global trade between both Canada, America and China. This past week saw premiums available for short term cash prices that were filled up quickly. Keep an eye out for any pricing specials that may arise!
Peas:#2CW Yellow Pea bids have dropped $0.25/bushel domestically since the last newsletter. This is mainly due to a lack of export sales. Green Peas, however, have increased a similar amount. There is a lot of uncertainty on the yellow pea market. In my opinion, the price is currently reflecting a bearish outlook on this uncertainty and there is room for upside in the market in future months. India received 9.5% less rain than expected as well as 10% less seeded acres.
The last couple weeks of cold weather has put many feedlots in a position where they need to buy. Most buyers got caught up on any lagging shipments during a mild January and with prices quite strong, buyers were reluctant to overbuy. Then came the cold, and cattle feed consumption has increased substantially while feed grain delivered froze….literally. This, and a believe-it-or-not-spring-around-the-corner-in-March, is creating pricing premiums for sellers predominantly for April-May, but some spot opportunities are still available for March.
Sellers Note: Corn is still available and at similar levels to Barley into Lethbridge and southern Alberta. Just a reminder of how easy it is for buyers to buy large volumes of Corn quickly. Buyers are willing to buy feed barley and wheat but – if supply gets tight – will chase the corn train.
– FEED BARLEY @ the bin: Feb-March: $5.10-5.15/ bushel April-July: $5.17-5.25/ bushel– FEED WHEAT @ the bin: Feb-March: $6.15-6.20/ bushel April-June: $6.25-6.30/ bushel *Seeing around a $0.25/bu premium for wheat with good protein (12.5-13.5%) and good falling numbers (300+).
– #1/2 CPSR WHEAT: Feb-July: $6.50-6.80/ bushel #1/#2 HRS Wheat: Feb-June: $6.80-7.10/ bu picked-up based 13-13.5% protein.
– 2CW OATS @ the bin (Subject to sample): Feb-March: $3.30-3.35/ bushel April-August: $3.35-3.45/ bushel *Additional premiums available for excellent colour. – 3CW OATS @ the bin: $0.10-0.25/bushel discount to 2cw bids. – FEED OATS: Feb-March: $2.80-3.00/ bushel, depending on quality
– 2CW GREEN PEAS @ the bin: Max 3% bleach: Feb-March: $11.00/ bushel
– 2CW YELLOW PEAS @ the bin Feb-March: $7.00/ bu
– FEED PEAS @ the bin Feb-March: $6.50-6.70/ bushel
– 2CW FABAS @ the bin: Feb-March: $10.40/ bushel – 3CW FABAS @ the bin: Feb-March: $9.15/ bushel – SAMPLE FABAS @ the bin: Feb-March: $8.90/ bushel – FEED FABAS @ the bin Feb-March: $6.50/ bushel
– CANOLA @ the bin (as of February 12th) Feb-March: $10.50-10.70/ bushel April-July: $10.80-10.90/ bushe
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