A small read with the power of a 16 cylinder engine. In just a few minutes, we’re going to cover current markets and what’s creating grain trading opportunities.
What’s happening in Agriculture?
You know that feeling when you want a steak, but you order a burger because you’re trying to save money? And then your buddy covers the bill!
We saw the email from Team Alberta (Alberta Wheat Commission) regarding the intensifying tug-of-war between spring harvest conditions and crop insurance payouts… This entire crop year, we’ve been talking with farmers who were out harvesting in 30 below weather, shooting snow through their combine, and recently, farmers who’ve been getting stuck in the mud in order to meet crop insurance demands…
We’re wondering… Is it fair/too late to relax the rules…? Is there any added compensation for those who have been busting up their equipment to get their crops off…?
These questions are not to take away from this tremendously difficult situation. Understanding crop insurance is like knowing what to do when changing a dirty diaper for the first time…
Good, bad, or neutral, we’d love to hear your thoughts. Please tweet us @Agfinity or chat with us on Facebook.
BARLEY We have buyers needing spot loads around Lethbridge and the Vermillion area. If you can load in the next couple weeks, this is a good opportunity.
May-June barley targets have been pushing $3-3.05/bu picked-up in Edmonton, and up to $3.10-3.25 Red Deer through Calgary. Unless we see some adverse growing conditions, this might actually be the rally we’ve been waiting for. And even if you can’t load till June, placing a target now should serve you better. Give us a call!
FEED WHEAT
Buyers are starting to wonder where all the feed wheat offers have gone! This is providing an opportunity to finally push for a little bit higher number. Offers have been triggering a little over $4.75 delivered throughout Alberta. What price do you want to target?
FEED FABA BEANS – FEED PEAS
Buyers are actively looking again! Call and we’ll get you a picked-up price!
If I even get to it (orhave to get to it), are there actually going to be buyers for spring thrashed?
Believe it or not, while the potential for making grade has evaporated with the neverending precipitation this April (sprouting/mildew concerns), there are still several feed grain buyers eager to buy spring thrashed grain.
A few provisors… Overall quality still matters. Prices will be mediocre at best. And mice and deer poop is still mice and deer poop.
Should I be pricing canola?
With Stats Can’s aggressive increase on oilseeds (10% more canola, 19% more flax and 27% more soybeans) , as well as the huge soybean harvest in South America and the increase in soybean acres in the US, yes, we think you should b e pricing some canola!
Old crop , we’re working on targets around $12 while the snow is still here, and the Canadian dollar is still trading at $0.74.
New crop, if you’re sitting at 0% priced, let’s try locking some in at close to $11 delivered while demand is still strong.
What’s moving Wheat up?
Weather concerns have taken away seller confidence and have opened up the possibility for last minute crop changes.
Expect to see continued new crop premiums to entice forward pricing. #2 CWRS bids for 2018 have been approaching $7 delivered at some locations!
…Speaking of weather concerns, how should I be taking advantage of what’s going on?
The Funds love weather concerns!! It’s a chance to push the market the other way, or right to it’s limit. Forward pricing exposes you to risk, but depending on your comfort levels, pricing a percentage of next year’s crop amid springtime uncertainties is not a bad idea!
What else should I be keeping an eye on?
Though Jared & Michelle’s upcoming family trip to Disneyland is not finding any support from a 74 cent dollar, Canadian export sales are! As more sales are made, we can expect to see more attractive wheat and canola basis levels for the foreseeable future.
Any sleeper crops or advice on what to seed?
Drumroll please! … We’ve picked peas as the 2017/2018 sleeper crop!
There’s bound to be fewer acres seeded with this weather, and with fumigation concerns still hanging over next harvest, producer’s do not have the same confidence as they had last year. Will India actually reject Canada’s 2017 harvest if we’re unable to fumigate? If you have bin space, we think you need not worry. Time shall prevail!
And what about my “favorite” crop,Barley?
Stats Canada has acres down 8%. And if things go according to plan, barley would slowly recover. Nevertheless, there’s still snow outside… Another year of $3 barley may be in the works.
Forward Pricing – We’re expecting limited upside this year. Does storing for 10 months validate a $0.25/bushel premium? …We don’t believe it does. And though $3-3.25 barley may not be too exciting, locking in a percentage of off-combine sales is definitely worth considering.
Oats Warning!
Stats can has acres up 20%! Bids have been around $2.50 picked-up in most areas and we’re encouraging producers to start locking some in! Give us a call!
