“Are you going to puke!?” Michelle asked our four-year-old as I lurched from sleep around 1:26 this morning. My body hoped his reply would be no, but his imminent sounds of retching prompted me to go.
Do I grab a garbage bag or a garbage bin? … The first towel I see, or an older, more haggard-looking one from the linen closet down the hall?
Nobody trains for these moments. So, when we find ourselves in them, we rely on a mixture of adrenaline, common sense, and fear-driven resourcefulness. I opted for a mostly empty garbage bin, and an older towel that was hanging in the kids’ bathroom. I’m not sure if I passed with flying colours, and since it was so dark, I’m not even sure what flying colours River had just passed onto our duvet… but Michelle was satisfied with my assistance during the unannounced puke attack and kindly released me to find another bed to sleep in.
“Apparently,” Michelle said, before I took to my escape, “everyone in our circle has already caught this bug… And I mean everyone! … So, we’re probably going to get it too.”
Family flu bugs. You can run, but you can never hide.
The same was true for this year’s harvest. As one farmer from Mayerthorpe shared with me yesterday, it comes down to crisis management. What you do in the moments you don’t train for. In his harvest-time dilemma, it was “do I deal with the bin of canola that’s heating, or do I pursue what’s still out in the field.”
He went for the canola in the field. A bird in hand, he determined, is only better than two in the bush when your hand isn’t on fire.
Whether you’ve experienced an unannounced heat attack on any of your grain this season, I think it’s safe to say all farmers have felt the feverish heat this year.
And where there’s smoke, there’s fire… The AAFC released an outlook on 2016/2017 farm income last Friday. They’re anticipating a 2% decrease of net cash income for 2016, and a further 7% in 2017. While a lot of this pressure accounts for the livestock side of the industry, farm marketing strategies have never been more important.
A nickel per bushel may not break the camel’s back, but farmers everywhere are starting to buckle. There’s no denying it. We’re in a storm. And when you’re caught in a storm, adrenaline, common sense, and fear-driven resourcefulness will usually prompt you toward one of two acts:
1) Getting to higher ground / finding shelter.
2) Waiting out the storm, or trying to outrun it.
… If you still have most of your grain left to market, I would guess you have yet to reach higher ground and are either still running, or are simply waiting for things to improve. And in a typical year, they often do. But this is a different sort of storm we’re facing this year… This is a gut-wrenching, one in the morning, puke-your-guts out, take-no-prisoners sort of storm.
But, lucky for us, this year’s spring harvest is not another sneak attack! An attack, yes, but not a sneaky one! We know about it. We can plan around it. And right now, we should be getting to higher ground, finding shelter in the current grain markets that are still available. Before long, March-April homes may be wiped out altogether, hedges and all.
We’d like to say it’s almost over, but this storm doesn’t seem to be finished with us yet. So, whether you grab the nice hand towels from the bathroom, or you have some spare rags underneath the kitchen sink, it’s about time we try to clean this mess up… or at least remove ourselves from the situation.
To higher ground we go! Call, email or tweet us for directions!
Barley : Feed barley looks to be trending down into spring. Warmer winter temps and an abundance of higher vomi feed wheat has kept bids lower this winter. Rejected malt barley now coming into play competing for bids and space. Most feeders are full March and buying limited tonnage for April. We do have some buyers with space for March delivery, but grain is trading at the bid and will fill up quickly. Delivered Lethbridge prices now at $3.35/bu for March and $3.40/bu for April-May. Edmonton and Coronation area delivered bids at $3.00-3.10/bu March-April.
Wheat: New crop bids for high quality gradable wheat should hold up into the fall especially if weather plays a role. Feed wheat bids remain similar to where they were at in early February and demand is sparse. Many buyers looking for April – May movement, but the occasional quick movement opportunity has come to the table.
Oats: Oat prices still holding up for good quality 2CW weighing 43.3 lbs and dry. 3CW bids still strong as well with moisture tolerance with some buyers up to 14.5%. Feed oat prices seen lower these past couple weeks. Buyers can take higher moisture feed oats, but bids will be well under $2/bu fob in most cases.
Canola: Canola bids slightly pressured and will likely remain pressured due to the ideal harvest conditions for South American soybeans. May bids have dropped to under $11.50/bu delivered.
Peas: New crop edible yellow pea contracts heard around $7.70-7.90/bu for October movement. Consider looking into new crop contracts. We’ve been hearing that India has had a good pulse crop this year, and with a fair amount of peas already stockpiled, their demand could be lower this next season. Green pea bids have softened the last few weeks. Delivered bids now at $8.00 – $8.50/bu for max 3% bleached. Higher bleached bids available at $7.75/bu (max 10%) and $7.50/bu (max 20%).
Is spring in the air? Many Feedlots are talking more and more about April-May and how much grain they will need and how bought up they currently are. If not already, we will soon be dealing with Road Bans, soft yards, seeding prep and spring harvest.
Buyers are concerned about receiving spring thrashed grain and some have been adjusting their specs for April-July grain to account for potential blending. Feedlots are also a little slower on replacement cattle than usual which may affect demand. Price may not be as much of a factor this spring as the ability to execute on loading and deliveries.
Let me know your thoughts! You can reach me on Twitter @JosephBillett.
*If you’re trying to reach us from outside of Canada this winter, our toll-free number unfortunately will not work, so please reach us at 780-968-1676. 😀
Whether you’re out running around in the cold, or paying bills by the fire…
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